Science Can Predict When You'll Die Based On Your Answer To These 13 Questions
A mortality predictor can give you a sense of when your death might be — but take it with a grain of salt.
dimaberlinphotos | Canva Are you still going to be around in five years? It's a scary question to ask, but would you still want to know if the answer could change the way you live your life? If you're planning on being alive, you might want to work on your savings; if you won't, then it's time to start living life to the fullest.
A 2015 mortality predictor followed 500,000 people from across the country aged between 40-69 years from 2006-2010 who were recruited to undergo long-term monitoring of their health. The information so far gleaned, which covers over 650 measurements per person, has been used by two Swedish scientists to produce an online ‘risk calculator,' which asks participants to answer these questions about their health.
If you answer these 13 questions, researchers can predict when you'll die:
1. What is your age?
2. What is your gender?
3. How many children have you given birth to?
4. Do you smoke tobacco now?
5. In the past, how often have you smoked tobacco?
6. In general, how you would rate your overall health?
7. Do you have any long-standing illness, disability, or infirmity?
8. How would you describe your usual walking pace?
9. Have you seen a general practitioner for nerves, anxiety, tension, or depression?
10. Has a doctor ever told you that you have cancer?
11. In the last two years, have you experienced any of the following?
- Serious illness, injury, or assault to yourself
- Serious illness, injury, or assault to a close relative
- Death of a close relative
- Death of a spouse or partner
- Marital separation/divorce
- Financial difficulties
12. Do you receive any of the following?
- Attendance Allowance
- Disability Allowance
- Blue Badge
13. How many cars/vans are owned, or available for use, by you or members of your household?
Tobi / Pexels
The mix and content of the questions are the result of analyzing volumes of data to find the best predictors of short-term mortality. For example, the car/van question works because research revealed it is closely correlated to wealth, which is an important factor in mortality.
The results give you your "Ubble" age — the age you're most likely to die — and your overall risk of dying. The calculator uses data from UK Biobank, a health resource that tries to help with the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of various diseases.
The survey takes your age, gender, and whether you have had any kids into consideration. It also looks into whether you smoke, how you walk, and even if you have experienced the death of a close relative or partner.
The probabilities generated by the calculator are just that are are “in no way intended to be an accurate prediction of the relevant risk related to a specific person.” With that caveat in mind, the results nevertheless serve as a reminder that, even over just half a decade, none of us should assume we are immortal.
Nicole Weaver is a senior writer for Showbiz Cheat Sheet whose work has been featured in New York Magazine, Teen Vogue, and more.